Causes of Elimination

[amplify26]

Recently, I saw a thread on the Amazing Race subreddit about why teams could lose the race and how many teams ended up succumbing to that fate. I was inspired by that, and figured I might do the same with Endurance teams.

The obvious difference between Endurance and The Amazing Race is that the former is a strategy-based game, like Survivor and Big Brother, whereas TAR is more of a skill-based game. Inevitably, Endurance teams would be voted to the Temple of Fate, though elimination is determined by rock-paper-scissors. According to the person who made this analysis, they said, "while most eliminations are in fact caused by a variety of factors, for the sake of simplicity here, I am specifically tabulating the final cause of a team's elimination - in other words, the point before which a team could still have survived, but after which they no longer had a chance.

As a result, I'm going for what caused a team to go to the Temple which led to their elimination.

Here we go!

E1:

Gray: This is difficult, as Max and Jenna didn't do anything wrong and seemed to be on good terms with the teams in power. At this point, Blue had loosened their ties with the Brotherhood and went on to eventually shift to their alliance. They were ultimately sent up because they were a strong team, and were expected to take out Green, though nobody knew what was up at Temple. I'm guessing they were the most expendable of the Red-Yellow-Gray alliance? Could also be perceived threat as a result.
Purple: Brandon and Layla were super unlucky to not be able to compete in Squeeze Play (legend has it Drew is still upset about it...), but I'm putting this one towards part of a rival alliance. By this point of E1, the alliances were more solid, and Purple stood out as the strongest of that lot. In addition, Green made a deal with Red and Yellow in the previous episode.
Orange: Again, part of a rival alliance. I'm not sure how the Samadhi impacted Orange's chances here--they were the first to let go in Eruption, and I'd imagine they'd still go out early even without it (they were the third team to let go in Tilt, for example).
Green: Hmm...one side of me thinks its because Green was the last non-alliance member standing, and another part of me suggests it's because Lana and Trevor lost a critical mission. Especially with giving the Blue Team the Samadhi, it was a good chance for Green to win it, though they didn't and Jonna was able to solve the riddle quickly.
Red: Lost the critical final mission, thanks to Christian's clumsiness.

E2:

Gray: They were sent with Orange as the weakest teams up to that point, so I'm putting that down as expendable. Alternatively, it could be because they were the least likely to take out their revenge on the Green Team.
Red: Again, it's because they were expendable. When Mike and Keetin were talking about who to send up to Temple, they went all over the place on whom would join Orange. I believe they chose Red because they were the least likely to get revenge. Apparently, God was on Green's side that night.
Blue: A mix of perceived threat, part of a rival alliance, and losing a critical mission. Scooter came hard out of the gate as a game player, which resulted in a number of the teams fearing what he has on his sleeve. Also, Blue was one of the anti-Brown brigade, which brought a divide for them. Losing On the Ropes doesn't help, especially considering how close they were to winning.
Yellow: While Purple and Yellow were in rival alliances,   I feel like Shep and Calley's downfall was precipitated by losing a critical mission--Cherry Picker. Pretty much one of the starkest examples of what happens when you don't win important missions.
Purple: At this point, Purple and Brown were the strongest teams left, so Green sent them as major threats which could prevent them from winning. Had Purple won Plank Maze, I'd imagine they would do the same thing.
Orange: Lost the final Temple mission.

E3:

Blue: Yellow wavered between Gray and Blue for whom to send along with Orange, but I think they settled on Blue because they were expendable in the grand scheme of things, along with the fact they wouldn't get their revenge.
Green: Pretty much one of the starkest cases of being part of a rival alliance. And Venetta picking Nicole over it.
Red: They were the most expendable member of their alliance, so when Red/Orange/Brown lost the superteam mission, they were on their way.
Brown: Because they were part of a rival alliance.
Purple: They were chosen as a perceived threat--Orange was the third wheel with Purple and Gray, and they actually acted on that when they won You're Fired.
Yellow: Lost the final Temple Mission.

[amplify26]

E4:

Gray: When they announced their alliance with Blue to everyone, they made themselves a major threat amongst the group. They were ultimately sent because Red/Yellow/Green/Purple needed to get them out as part of a rival alliance.
Yellow: Superteams have a way of showing who's high on the pecking order. Jonathan wasn't sure about whom to send, and let the others choose who would go up. Hence, Yellow ended up quite expendable, despite being a fairly strong team.
Orange: Michael's duplicitous ways put everybody on edge for what Orange could do, and they were sent because they were not as close to Purple and Green as Red and Blue. Leaning towards "part of a rival alliance", though.
Blue: They were part of a rival alliance; or at least, the most distant from the Purple Team at the time. Daniela contemplated sending Green in their place, but Jonathan vetoed it. (On another note, could've they won Cubed, or was Purple too fast for them?)
Green: Lost the final Temple mission. Though arguably, they could've held out had they not received the Samadhi...

E5:
Gray: I could put this as either losing a critical mission, or being part of a rival alliance. The former because as soon as Ike was let go, their fate was sealed; the latter because E5's alliances were quite set at the time. What do you think?
Yellow: Same as with Gray, though Max tried to overrule Purple and send Green in their place.
Orange: Because they were the most expendable team of those left; how they tried to ruffle feathers amongst PROG doesn't really work out for them.
Red: I was leaning towards because of their expendability, but then I remembered that they lost Fill'er Up. So that puts them in lost a critical mission, though Purple not using the Triangle of Immunity doesn't help.
Blue: Lost the final Temple mission.

E6:
Yellow: Kyle and Briana were shunted out of the group quite quickly, and Orange chose to sent them up because they were the most expendable of the group. Or a part of a rival alliance, though it's pretty clear who's in their group and who's not.
Purple: Because Purple was part of a rival alliance (no matter how hard Lauren tried to cover it up...), though they were the strongest between Blue and them.
Orange: Because they were a perceived threat. By receiving the Samadhi, Red ended up being the third wheel between them, Green, and Orange. And by winning Shark Bait, Red was able to take them out.
Red: One. Teevee. Nut.

Conclusions: 

Looking at these, I noticed how much a social game is pretty much a strong part of doing well on Endurance. Making sure one's in a decent alliance, as well as navigating those hierarchies, is important. In contrast, those who are usually on the outs and survived (E2 Orange, E3 Yellow, E5 Blue), had to find strategies to handle the dominant teams' strengths, or winning missions when they needed too. This is apparent when they lost the final Temple Mission, and got eliminated at Temple. :,(

Every Temple Mission is critical to some extent, though some are more important for those on the outs. I singled out E2 Yellow as one team that would've stayed had they won a mission, though there are other examples too.

What do you think?

[waterwoodfire]

I think for E5 Gray, i would lean losing a critical mission. Gray ultimately lacked an alliance as Blue gave them a samadhi and Yellow was close enough with the rest to get key advice on beating Gray. I think Yellow was also informed of the team switch plan but didn't leak it with Blue or Gray either. As Ike put his situation in Move it Along "we just have to win the next four missions"